by Talking to Albertans
«What happens if Alberta keeps its own money instead of sending $44 BILLION a year out of the province?
In this video, I break down the real numbers behind Alberta independence, federal transfers, and what Alberta’s economy could look like if that money stayed here.
In this episode of my ongoing series breaking down The Value of Freedom, I walk through the section titled “Overview of an Integrated Independent Alberta Financial Landscape” and explain what the full financial picture of an independent Alberta could actually look like.
This is where everything comes together. Instead of looking at individual pieces like pensions, policing, or federal transfers, this section combines total revenue, total spending, and the overall fiscal reality Alberta could have if it stopped sending massive amounts of money out of the province every year.
The core argument is simple and powerful. Alberta sends roughly $68–75 billion annually to the federal government while only receiving $22–26 billion back. That leaves a gap of about $44–47 billion every single year. This isn’t a minor imbalance. This is the foundation of the entire Alberta independence debate.
So what actually happens if Alberta keeps that money?
According to the document, when you combine retained federal taxes with Alberta’s existing provincial revenue, total annual revenue could reach approximately $142–149 billion. Estimated total spending, including replacing federal services like defense, border control, pensions, and policing, comes in around $98–106 billion. That leaves a projected surplus in the range of $29–48 billion annually.
That is a completely different financial reality than what most people have been led to believe.
In this video, I break these numbers down in clear, practical terms so you can understand what they actually mean. Not just the conclusions, but how the system fits together and where the assumptions come from.
One of the biggest components is the proposed Alberta Pension Plan. The argument is that Alberta workers contribute more into CPP than they receive back due to a younger population and higher employment. Based on a conservative estimate, Alberta could control an asset base of roughly $183.7 billion, generating about $23.4 billion per year. That means pension money stays in Alberta and supports Albertans directly instead of being redistributed.
I also walk through the cost of replacing federal services, estimated at $22.7–31.6 billion annually. This includes national defense, border services, international relations, and federal programs. The key point is that most day-to-day services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure are already handled at the provincial or municipal level. Independence doesn’t mean starting over. It means taking control of what’s already being paid for.
And this is where the conversation becomes unavoidable. If even a significant portion of these numbers holds up, it suggests Alberta is not struggling because it lacks wealth. It suggests Alberta is losing it.
At the same time, I don’t ignore the challenges. Trade relationships, economic transitions, and political negotiations all matter. But those are challenges to solve, not reasons to ignore the scale of what’s at stake.
Alberta has the resources. Alberta has the workforce. Alberta has the economic capacity.
The question is whether Albertans are willing to take control of it.
This series is about moving beyond surface-level arguments and actually understanding the numbers behind Alberta independence. Whether you support it or not, you should understand what’s being proposed.
Watch the full breakdown and decide for yourself.